Ep. 95| Leading the Church Through Extreme Changes in 2026 and Beyond

What happens when the next wave of church leadership arrives faster than the handoff? In this episode, Daniel and Norival wrap up their conversation on Carey Nieuwhof's church leadership trends for 2026 by diving into two urgent realities: aging senior pastors and the accelerating AI revolution. 

You will hear why many leaders feel a growing tension around succession, trust, and readiness, along with a candid look at why some older leaders struggle to release responsibility and why younger leaders often need real opportunities to grow. The conversation explores mentoring as a missing link, the need for safe spaces to learn through experience, and how the church can honor what previous generations built while still adapting to rapid cultural change.

They also tackle the opportunities and risks of artificial intelligence, asking how Christian leaders can approach new technology with wisdom, courage, and integrity while keeping the gospel deeply relational. Tune in to gain insights on developing leaders who can navigate both generational transition and the AI moment with faithfulness and clarity.

Resources:
- 7 Disruptive Church Trends That Will Rule 2026 - https://careynieuwhof.com/church-trends-2026

Transcript

Series Setup And Trend Recap

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hey, I'm really excited. We're going to be finishing out a three-part series looking at Carrie Newhoff's seven church leader trends for 2026. Doesn't matter what year this is, I still know that as we listen and look at this, we're going to know uh and see some of the trends that God has brought about in this upcoming year. Listen, it's gonna be a great time. We're gonna look at uh senior leaders and next generation leaders, some of the uh generational dynamics and and maybe even elements of distrust that have built up in those generations, but also how that plays a role in the kind of lag that the church has in adopting and adapting AI for gospel and kingdom advancing purposes. It's gonna be a great conversation as Norval and I break down this uh sixth and seventh church trend uh for 2026. Norval, I've really enjoyed our conversations talking through some of these uh uh seven trends that Carrie Newhoff shared. Um, I'd like to continue that conversation, but I think it'd be a good moment to just kind of recap them. Would you walk us through uh just those first five? Uh I know we're gonna talk about six and seven here, but just kind of refresh our minds on what we've looked at so far already.

Top Five Trends Summarized

Senior Pastors Aging Out

SPEAKER_01 1:08

Yes, absolutely. Um he's been publishing these trends every year, and uh this year it was seven trends for 2026. Number one, he says, Gen Z is leading the surge in church attendance. So it's a confirmation of what we uh we heard last year, and we we even discussed about uh how Gen Zers are coming back to church. Number two, young men are coming to church. Women are not, they're leaving. That's a disturbing trend. Yeah, it's great that men are coming back, but not that uh that women are disappointed or leaving the church. Number three, I love it. Evangelism is getting bolder and more direct. People are engaged in personal evangelism, engaging in sharing their faith, uh, though it is bypassing the church, you know, um, as as as we have discussed in uh last episode. Number five is a very interesting one. Discipleship is now largely controlled by algorithm. People are discipled by their feeds, uh, or discipled, we discussed about the term, you know, they they're they're they're they're consuming content and learning content from these feeds. Whether you know they're learning how to live, that's a different story. Then number six, so now we get to um to the last two ones that we want to discuss today, and it says that senior pastors are aging. Well, that is obviously, but they're aging out. Yeah. So they're reaching the the end of their productive life cycle, uh, and and few are replacing them. Um it has it has to do with uh there are fewer, there are not enough young men and women go going through seminary and and going through training to replace these um senior pastors. There is there there is a uh an interesting trend that I um I think it wasn't last year's trends of new a new type of lead pastor, senior pastor, less superstar, less celebrity, more down-to-earth, more uh authentic, which is a great trend. Yeah. The question is the numbers, whether they're gonna be able to replace uh these senior pastors that are aging out. Uh the other issue here is that these pat these uh older leaders are not necessarily willing to um relinquish leadership, they're hanging on to it, which you know in some way happens with every generation. I don't think I think we're always this is a human tendency. I have a successful organization and ministry. Um comes time for me to pass the baton. Nobody, nobody's ever, you know, it's hard to find somebody that they consider adequate, and they are reluctant um to pass it on, especially to younger people. We are a privileged organization because our founder and in and our leadership um handed over uh the reins of of a significant leadership training organization, the International Leadership Institute, to you. And you are a millennial.

Generational Tensions And Trust

SPEAKER_00 4:33

That's true. It's uh it's incredibly humbling. You know, as I looked at these statistics, Norval, I I was just I I was really struck, right? In 1992, the average age of a pastor was 44. Average age of a senior pastor was 44. Today that's 58. Only 5% of senior pastors were over 65 in the early 90s. Uh and today that's it's radically different. Um and again, this is looking at at pastoral leadership and and and church leadership, and of course these are church trends, so they naturally should. Right. But I I do think that that's a an ongoing trend. Is there is because the next generations have have uh uh been just so different from the generations that have come before. The the the rate of change in in the culture and in society has been so rapid that it has left uh it has left some of those tensions and some of those difficulties. Uh and and I think that's what a lot of a lot a lot of Christian leaders are facing. I I know from my side, uh as a as a millennial stepping into uh a leadership role, I feel the the the weight of some of those things. The pressures to go, wait a second, um, how do I uh initiate change in a way that honors the past because it should be honored, and acknowledges that the past is no longer the present. And and so innovation and change are necessary elements. How do I do that in a way that maintains respect, honor, and dignity um while also making change? And and for that change to not be a repudiation or a refutation of the accomplishments of the past.

SPEAKER_01 6:02

That's a that's a there is a little bit of that perception, you know. Um, as we were talking about these aging pastors, we were we were discussing here, there are very few people that are greatly respected, that are leading big churches or they're leading big movements that are from what uh what the the study here calls the elder generation. Yeah. That is the the we call the builders sometimes, the great generation, whatnot. The greatest generation. Uh greatest generation. Really, most of these senior pastors that are aging out are now boomers.

SPEAKER_00 6:36

Yeah.

Succession, Mentoring, And Safe Failing

SPEAKER_01 6:36

My generation. That's right. It's exactly what's happened, what's happened with our founder. It's I'm in a process in which in a few years I will no longer be in the position that I'm in. Yeah. Um I'll be phasing out of the leadership of the International Leadership Institute, and it'll be wholly led by uh a younger generation, millennials, and then eventually Gen Z. And one of the one of the issues with our uh with our generation is that the perception that your generation is I was gonna say here to get us, but not is it's it's like that your generation considers every any any everything that we did um as negative. Yeah uh we were the generation that uh that caused you know the demise of the economy and all of that stuff um that caused you know Xers and millennials to not have available jobs available, inflation, all of that kind of stuff. And and I and I I I believe that's that is part that narrative influences.

SPEAKER_00 7:49

I think uh I think there's a degree to which every culture, every generation looks for the boogeyman, right? Looks for the the easy place to go and dump dump the problems at the feet of of someone somewhere. And uh, you know, I I I do think that there has been a a degree of cultural acceptance, and I think this is a largely Western. Yeah, where you you look at the older generation, you say it's all their fault. Um and wow, I don't think that's a biblical frame for how we are meant to relate to older generations, uh, or meant to um uh connect or love or or or um listen or or lead or be led by those generations. Um and I do think that's led to maybe even an unprecedented level of generational distrust, where older generation and younger generation, even though they're really we're talking parent and child here, right? In some senses, are are not are not trusting each other. They're not trusting each other, allowing for those kinds of successions and transitions to take place. You know, this this um this study refers to uh uh uh or you know, Kerry Neoff refers to some studies that he does. He says 71% of the leaders agree or someone agree that they are concerned with the quality of future Christian leaders. That is unbelievable. 70%, more than 70%, but 70% of current leaders today think the next generation of leaders not qualified. Not qualified for leadership. No wonder they don't want to give leadership away.

SPEAKER_01 9:20

Of course. And and I think you've read a study that that shows some of uh some of the the difficulties and crises of of baby boomers as they reach you know our age, uh 60s and 70s, um anxieties that are particular.

SPEAKER_00 9:39

Norval, it it's incredible to see some of those those fears. And and you know, I think some of them are human, I think that some of them are natural, and I also think some of them are products of the time, right? You already listed one where they sit there and they fear that everything they've built is is being viewed as or criticized as the source of all problems. I think they fear uh a move into irrelevancy. And I think that's probably somewhat natural. Is is this, you know, do any of my stories really matter anymore? The world that that I can relate to doesn't exist, you know. Um, when I graduated high school, these things didn't exist. And yet they're the sum of so much of uh, you know, these cell phones didn't exist. They're the sum of so much of the world today, is is is being is interactions that take place on this device. Um and I still grew up with the internet.

SPEAKER_01 10:28

Well, you're um you're a much uh a younger generation. For me, uh none of these things existed. I am a f I grew up fully analog, you know, in the in the 70s and 80s. Yeah. Um I grew up in the 70s, I married in the 60s and 70s, married in the 80s, uh developed my character in my ministry through the 90s and 2000s, and then went into uh uh in the 2010s and 2020s, I'm going into now the the the older season in life. And so, yeah, uh the thing is the world is constantly changing, but everybody agrees that the rate of change has accelerated exponentially. Oh, yeah. And in a way, we always joke, you know, when a mother, a grandmother sees a grandchild that repeats the behavior, bad behavior of the mother, you know, the grandmother says that's revenge because they're revenging on you. And in a way, with the rate of change accelerating, Daniel, what is it gonna be when you guys have to deal with the the alphas? Oh, because from now on with this AI uh revolution, it's just gonna accelerate again.

Redesigning Roles And Structures

SPEAKER_00 11:52

Well, I I think those things are are so true, Norval. I think that acceleration isn't changing. And I think we should note, you know, there's technically a generation between us, right? There's Gen X between us. Right. And it might be that we don't even talk about it. We don't. It might be that that for one of the first times in history, we'll see a generation skipped in transfer of leadership. Um, from boomer straight to millennial, uh leaving out the the wisdom, knowledge, and experience that that the some of the Gen X leaders might have, uh or certainly have. And so it's a really unique leadership series of transitions. And I think that there are probably two or three things that that Christian leaders today need to acknowledge. Number one, uh, if we don't think that the Christian leaders of tomorrow are ready, we have to be doing something to equip them. Absolutely. It's not they're not gonna learn by themselves. They're not going to learn by themselves.

SPEAKER_01 12:42

It is it is our responsibility. And I'm speaking as a as a uh uh um baby boomer, it is our generation. If we don't, if we don't believe you guys are ready to do it, it's our responsibility to come alongside you and help and and and help you do it and get it succeeded.

SPEAKER_00 13:00

Because we're not gonna be here forever. You're not. And I think I think what we what we can fail to realize is it's not going to magically come to be. Uh it actually takes um you know, it takes it takes swings of the bat, it takes reps, it takes the opportunities to fail while the the boomer leadership is still present, while the wisdom, knowledge, and experience is still there to give insight.

SPEAKER_01 13:22

Trevor Burrus, Jr. That's a big insight. Like we the boomer generation needs to allow the millennial the millennials, the the new leadership, whether it's Gen Xers or Millennials, to fail in a safe space.

Defining Next-Gen Leadership Early

SPEAKER_00 13:36

Trevor Burrus, Jr. Correct. I think one of the one of the greatest blessings that that Wes and Joy Griffin gave to ILI, that the board of ILI gave, was the opportunity for me to step into this role in a season where we still have baby boomer uh knowledge, wisdom, and experience. We still have um, you know, maybe a handful of leaders globally that are even part of that elder generation that that I can I can glean from rather than trying to figure it out suddenly wholesale on my own. Uh, one of the best gifts. And and giving that, if we know there's a leadership issue, we've got to give the opportunities for those things to take place and pretend leadership isn't leadership. We have to actually let them succeed or fail, win or or fall. And in that process, that's going to give them the opportunity to grow. And we've got to have a system for developing, for a language for developing leaders. Um, and obviously at ILI, we think that the eight core values is a great tool for seeing that done. But I think the first lesson for leaders is we they're not going to develop themselves, we've got to develop them. I think a second leadership lesson is the structures that we have built are based on a level of leadership that they may not attain. Right? If I've got if I've got a church with 20,000 people showing up on any given Sunday, uh, well, praise God, that's fantastic. But the leader who takes that role may not be in a position to lead at that level because they may not have had the opportunities to lead at that level. Uh and let's let's bring it back, you know, to the realm of reality. 200 people at the church, right? It it it takes a kind of leadership uh experience set of qualities and characteristics to sustain those kinds of movements and momentum. And uh if we don't if we don't know if we don't have leaders who are developed to to lead in that context, it may be actually because God is trying to do a new thing. It may be that what once was um you know a mega church turns into a mega church planting movement, right? And it just fundamentally shifts. And we've got to be willing to, again, see that not as a repudiation of what was built, but as a rebirth of of what God has blessed for the purpose of reaching the new and the next.

SPEAKER_01 15:45

Right. Well, you there's a lot of things about the church that that that are dying anyway, in in the sense that they're no longer relevant for this generation. And so why not allow it to change? You know, why not allow it to uh to move on beyond beyond us? Yeah, allow people to go beyond what we've done.

SPEAKER_00 16:08

If we're not allowing, you know, if if our understanding of next gen leader is 55, or if our understanding of next gen leader is 40, we're missing the mark. Uh, I really think we've got those people should already be in leadership roles. Uh they should already have had swings of the bat and experience at the at the plate, you know. Um we've got to be looking at those 20 and 30s and and saying, how do we get you involved and engaged as much as early, as often as possible, so that you can learn. Um so that when you do get to 40 or 50, you have that experience and you will be a trustee. I think I think if it weren't for the the individuals that got placed in my life, um, you know, I I would be woefully uh unequipped and ill-prepared. And and to be clear, I still have many things to learn and I'm still trying to grow. Uh, you know that I'm I'm I'm constantly trying to do that. I I love our opportunities to have those conversations. I don't think that I have have reached some point where I'm perfectly qualified for what God has called me to. I only acknowledge I would be even more unqualified had it not been for the opportunities that people in my past gave. Um, not because I even earned it and not because I necessarily deserved it, but they saw the opportunity and the potential in me to say, I want to like you're gonna, you're gonna step into this. Yeah. And I think that's the real, that's that's the real message I would have for a leader today. Hey, senior leaders, don't don't miss those opportunities. Please, please, please give opportunities, swings to the bat, chances at the plate for individuals to step into it. And it's not I'm testing you, it's I'm giving you it, uh, I'm giving you this so that you gain the experience. Uh, experience is such a beautiful educator. I don't know if we miss it.

SPEAKER_01 17:45

I don't know where I heard this, but it might be uh the word might be uh mentoring.

SPEAKER_00 17:50

Is that the way it is? Yeah, Norval, it's mentoring. We've missed it so much. We've missed it so much. We miss out on the gift and the beauty of Christian mentoring. Um, and I think, you know, we we talk about these eight core values, and and so much of Christian leadership has been focused on making me better, not making more leaders. Uh, and I think that's where the the the core value of multiplication of leaders is a critical piece for ILI. It's a critical piece for Christian leaders. We've got to make more. Um, you know, uh, I think it was Jimmy who first said it to me, but we're always just one generation from losing it. Yep.

SPEAKER_01 18:25

Uh and every new generation is so somebody wrote about every new generation is the is a horde of pagans that uh that need to be evangelized all over again.

AI Fears And Work Disruption

SPEAKER_00 18:36

And you know, all you have to do is have a two-year-old to know that's so true. Yeah, absolutely. Okay, well, Norval, if if we see this coming and we know that the next generation needs swings of the bat, they need experience, they need they need reps in leadership contexts. How do you think this plays into the real AI revolution that's taking place?

Church History Of Adapting Tech

SPEAKER_01 18:56

Ooh, I think the the seventh trend is the scariest one. And and I kind of joined the bandwagon of the people that are at the same time enthusiastic about AI. You know, uh I modify my old pictures like everybody else on uh on on the internet, and and I ask Chat GPT to help me write emails like everybody. Well, I don't know about everybody else, but a lot of people. But I am also uh I am also with those that say that we're moving too fast without knowing where we're going. With a possibility that that we're going in directions that might result in in crises. I I I read something uh today about um the what they call the white color bloodbath of um of AI in the future, meaning that uh AI will start, you know, w what is it gonna be uh of lawyers and accountants? Yeah. And uh and you know, um let me think of other what other professions, pharmacists or you know, in the age uh when AI starts uh if evolves and starts doing that, when you know it's it's already it's already here. If I have a a legal question, I can go to one of these GPTs and you know, whether it's ChatGPT or Le Claude or Gemini or or one of the others, and I can present my case, and and you know, they will they will tell me what to do, they will search the web and pull out the petitions and the documents, they will write it, and you know, the moment they're authorized to sign it, that's the moment lawyers are irrelevant. Just like the moment self-driving cars solve the problem of insurance and and and accountability, I mean, meaning who is accountable if a self-driving car you know gets in an accident? Is the is it the owner, is it the maker, is it the uh software developer? Um so once that is that is solved, once once the cars are given permission to drive us around, you know, it'll be the end of the driver. Uber already has self-driving you know, Ubers in in some places. Um so what does that do for pastors and church leaders and nonprofit leaders and thought leaders?

SPEAKER_00 21:43

Well, Norval, I I think the beauty of the Christian faith is one that has always adapted. Again, technology uh uh uh it it exists, it's developed, it's it's you know, uh proliferated uh across communities, cultures, nations. The beauty of the church is it's always sought to identify, leverage, and adapt that technology for the proclamation of the gospel. Right. Right. The printing press, uh, with with Gutenberg, um, the the advent of radio with the first sermons being preached and and uh the use of of radio to proclaim the gospel out further. You know, we see that TV and satellite. Um, but I would even point back to the letters that Paul wrote.

SPEAKER_01 22:25

Right, yes. Quill, a quill in uh in in papyrus or was the was the AI of the first century.

SPEAKER_00 22:35

It was the leading technology of the day. If it wasn't for that piece of technology, I would have had to go and send that message face to face or through another person, right? Um using paper and pen is so uh an element of antiquity that we don't even consider it technology, uh, but it is. Um and we know it is because the history of of the faith is an oral tradition, right? Um till the point that it starts getting written down. Um and so I I say that only to say I think when it comes to the AI element and in the church's response to it, uh I think there's a constant acknowledgement that absolutely uh it can be used for evil and it can it can result in detriment uh detriment and in and negative outcomes. But I think the innovative Christian leaders uh that that are being raised up right now are going to see it as another tool in their arsenal uh of of addressing some of the greatest problems in the world and ultimately the gospel problem uh that rests underneath all those problems.

Digital Natives, Visas, And Discipleship

SPEAKER_01 23:39

But the th the the observation that the that the report says is that that you're right, but we're behind the curve right now. The church is behind the curve. It hasn't stopped. In fact, um we're not trying to promote Kerry Newhoff, but he says here, and he says in his podcast that he's writing a book on that that should be published next year or something like that. So that's what the call is for thought leaders like him and others, maybe maybe us, yeah, to write something to help the church navigate and and use um artificial intelligence to for the proclamation of the gospel.

SPEAKER_00 24:26

Well, and and I think I think there's wisdom in looking to some of those thought leaders um and and finding trusted sources for some of those. Another that I would offer, even in addition to uh a carry new off would be a group called Faith Tech Global. Uh brothers and sisters that have lived and operated in the faith and technology space for a long time uh and are diligently asking some of those questions uh to help people navigate and and and consider and think through some of those pieces. Um But I think I think at the at the root of that, Norval, those these two last these last two things I think are connected. Uh I think that the next generation of leaders is a generation of leaders that understands more intuitively, can interact more readily, uh, is less apprehensive to explore the boundaries of how AI can meaningfully be used without undermining uh authenticity of gospel message, uh sincerity of gospel presentation, uh the the the reality that a personal relationship is the means by which uh these things are are are you know uh propagated. Um, this this this is a relational faith, and if we remove relationship from it, it seek it it loses uh an essential element to to the faith. Um and I think those are some of the fears, and I think they're they're not unjustified fears, but I do think that there's a connection between these last two that it's because we have a a um a senior leadership structure that, you know, we use this phrase during COVID. Uh they have visas into the digital world, but they're not natives, right? They've got a passport where they've come in, right, but they didn't grow up with it. Um and that's the space that that I think we're stepping into, right? I will I will forever be a visa holder in the AI world, but my children are growing up in a world where they've never known, they've never not known AI as a means by which answers.

SPEAKER_01 26:18

I used to say, I'm I'm I'm I was born analog. I learned to be digital, but a lot of people in my generation never really learned to be digital. They barely scratched the surface. Yeah. Your generation was born barely analog, but you grew up. I grew up analog.

SPEAKER_00 26:34

Yeah. You grew up digital. I mean, I I remember building computers. Uh we were blessed as as a family. I built a computer in my parents' basement on a Saturday morning when I was nine, ten years old.

SPEAKER_01 26:44

Uh well, I put one together too. Like you know, you buy the parts, yeah. You know you buy that about that tower and you put it together. Even even not being uh you know that savvy, I that's I did it once.

Intergenerational Strategy For AI

SPEAKER_00 26:57

Well, uh and never more, but but you you did it, but I I just recognize again, I I was doing that at nine and ten, and I imagine you were not nine and ten. Uh 40. Yeah. Yeah. It's just different, different season. Right. And so I look at this and I go, yeah, I don't think that the the AI will be mastered by the by the Christian leaders of today. I think they'll be mastered by the Christian leaders of the generation that follows mine. Um but I think I think the wisdom and the knowledge of the generations now need to disciple, teach, and educate for that generation to not lose its way in the midst of applying those absolutes. Yes. And I think the best thing we can do uh is to provide, again, those those opportunities to begin exercising some of that innovation and some of that thinking in a space that that allows for for something meaningful. You know, um I think that's what's going to be some of the trend that we see this year is is men and women exploring that, innovating in that, and really trying to uh see how to leverage this new and developing technology uh while also acknowledging, hey, it may not be me that's the leader that has to do that. I gotta find a next generation leader who's gonna step in and see it done.

SPEAKER_01 28:14

Right. And that intergenerational conversation needs to happen. Uh so that so you know, the wisdom of the of the older generation with the savviness of the younger is i are are the elements that are gonna put together um a a strategy that that is gonna be able to adjust to uh to the to AI and and whatever comes next.

Leader Shortage And Equipping

SPEAKER_00 28:37

That's right. And and I think I think we'd be remiss without acknowledging Norval. There are more leaders needed than there are currently leaders in the pipeline. Period. Period. So let alone leaders who are innovating, we're just not gonna have enough leaders to maintain. Uh and so the the leadership crisis has never been more clear. It's never been a greater need. Uh and it's a it's a core element that I think undergirds and and and it kind of sits quietly underneath all of these trends, is that one of the most effective and meaningful things we can do today to advance the kingdom today and tomorrow is uh equipping local leaders to advance the kingdom of God.

SPEAKER_01 29:16

And that's why we that's why we're here, and that's why we do what we do.

SPEAKER_00 29:19

That's why that's why we do what we do, Norval.

SPEAKER_01 29:21

And and that's why it's been a joy to do it for years. Uh and to see men and women go through our our trainings, learn the eight core values, and and as they apply, as they begin to live it, to start influencing their generation and even the next generation.

Final Encouragement And CTA

SPEAKER_00 29:41

Amen. It's what a privilege. Amen. Well, listen, leaders, I hope this has been a helpful uh conversation with you and and for you. Um obviously, we uh love the fact that you are taking a part in this journey. You want to understand how to be a more effective leader, you want to understand some of the trends that are happening today in the church, and you want to be a part of some of these more uh intentional conversations. Listen, we believe that the best way to advance the gospel is a local leader, just like you. You have been blessed by God with influence and relationships in your sphere, uh, and you're the best person uh to reach those people with the good news, the hope that is found in Jesus Christ alone. We want to help equip you to do that, uh equip you to do that with longevity, with a faithfulness, uh, with Christ-like character. And uh, I think in that journey, God will be glorified. You'll be more effective toward your purpose, vision, and calling, and uh, man, people's lives will be transformed. Uh, the International Leadership Institute is an incredible ministry. God blesses us to be able to serve men and women in more than a hundred nations of the world. Uh, if you'd like to learn more, go to ILITeam.org. There you can see how to get plugged in, what these eight core values are, and all those kinds of details. Uh, but also feel free to give us a like, a subscribe, a listen. Uh, let us know what elements of these conversations are the most helpful for you. We are here to serve, equip, and uh encourage you in your own leadership, faith, and walk. Uh, so help us to know what connects best with you, and we look forward to serving you uh in the future.